地震活动性总体参量Rt及其在地震预测中应用的研究

考虑到地震活动性综合分析在地震预测中的重要作用,提出一种地震活动性总体状态参量Rt。该参量由多项地震活动性预测因子构成,其中包括:地震频次、缺震、地震熵、b值和调制比,该参数描述了某时段内,多种地震活动性参量对正常状态的偏离。当Rt=1时,地震活动状态是稳定的,反之,当Rt<1时,则表明地震活动处于不同程度的不稳定态。文中对华北、东北和西北地区地震以及矿山地震的Rt值在强事件前后随时间的变化进行了研究,初步结果表明:在强震或较大矿震前Rt值明显偏离1。同时,对Rt值的地震预测效能进行了检验评估。

Study on the integrated parameter Rt of seismic activity and its application to earthquake prediction

Considering the great role of comprehensive analysis of seismic activity in earthquake prediction,an integrated parameter R_t of seismicity has been proposed in this paper.R_t consists of several seismic factors,including earthquake frequency,average magnitude,seismic entropy,b value and modulation ratio,it describes the total deviation of seismicity state from the normal in a given time interval.When R_t=1,the state of seismic activity is stable,otherwise,the seismic state is unstable in varying degrees.The variation of R_t with time has been studied for earthquakes occurred in North China,Northeast China and Northwest China regions as well as for mining earthquakes.The preliminary results show that R_t deviates from 1.0 clearly before the large earthquake occurrence.The efficiency of earthquake prediction by use of R_t parameter has been also estimated.