北部湾地区地震活动趋势分析

根据多重仿射性概念研究了某些动力系统以及地震孕育系统时间序列的标度行为。初步结果得到某些动力系统的结构函数，随着时间序列窗口的增长，吸引子显示出较为稳定的结构，而孕震系统长时间过程表现为较为稳定，曲线较为光滑。临震前结构函数有明显下降趋势，例如，海城与唐山震例。

A tendency analysis for seismicity in the BeibuBay area

Based on the multiaffinity point of view,in this paper,the scalling behaviour of time series is studied for some dynamic and seismogenic systems.The preliminary resutls show that the structure of attractor is stable when the variations of the structure funtion With time.A long term behaviour for seismogenic system manifested as a stable characteristic,and the scalling curves of structure function are smooth.in particular,there is a tendency reduction for the scalling values of the structure function before the main events,for example,Haicheng and Tangshan earthquakes.The characteristics of seismic activities in BeibuBay area are different from two districts above montioned, And the scalling behaviour of the curves for structure function manifects as a period oscillation phenomena.At present,the value of the scalling curves is just at a peak state. This phenomona need to be tracked and investigated further.