极端降水对娘子关泉流量的补给研究

采用广义极值Pareto分布模型（GPD）研究娘子关泉域的月最大降水，并在剔除人类活动造成的泉水流量下降趋势（亦即平稳化）后，研究不同重现期的极大月降水量与平稳化后的泉水年平均流量的关系，以获得极端降水与泉水流量的相关关系。结果表明，娘子关泉域的极大月降水与之后第2 年的泉水年均流量关系最为密切。此外，文中还给出了相应的量化关系表达式，并据此估算娘子关泉域重现期为20、30、50、100年的月降水量分别为280 mm、295 mm、315 mm、338 mm，其对之后的第2年的年均泉流量补给分别为1.58m3/s、1.83m3/s、2.16m3/s和2.55m3/s。 

Study on the recharge to the Niangziguan Springs by extreme precipitation

The monthly maximum precipitation in the Niangziguan Spring Basin is studied in light of the General Pareto Distribution (GPD) model. In order to get the interrelations between the extreme precipitation and the spring discharge, the relationship between the mean annual discharge and the maximum monthly precipitation at different recurrence intervals are analyzed on the basis of eliminating the decreasing trend of the spring discharge caused by human activities. The results show that there is a two-year time lag between the maximum monthly precipitation and the mean annual discharge. Moreover, the quantitative relation expression between the maximum monthly precipitation and the mean annual discharge is put forth in the paper. And according to the quantitative relation expression, the monthly precipitation after 20-year, 30-year, 50-year and 100-year recurrence intervals being reckoned as 280 mm, 295 mm, 315 mm and 338 mm respectively, which will provide recharge for the springs respectively by 1.58m3/s, 1.83m3/s，2.16m3/s and 2.55 m3/s 2 years afterwards.