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The estimation of yearly probability gain for seismic statistical model |
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| Authors: | JIE LIU JIAN-CANG ZHUANG VERE-JONES DAVID YAO-LIN SHI LI MA |
| Affiliation: | 1. Center for Analysis and Prediction, China Seismological Bureau, Beijing 100036, China 2. ISOR, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand 3. Graduate School, University of Science and Technology of China, Beijing 100039, China |
| Abstract: | Basedon the calculation method of information gain in the stochastic process presented byVere-Jones, the relation between information gain and probability gain is studied, whichis very common in earthquake prediction, and the yearly probability gain for seismicstatistical model is proposed. The method is applied to the non-stationary Poisson modelwith whole-process exponential increase and stress release model. In addition, theprediction method of stress release model is obtained based on the inverse functionsimulation method of stochastic variable. |
| Keywords: | yearly probability gain non-stationary Poisson model stress release model stochastic vari able simulation |
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