Polar motion modeling,analysis, and prediction with time dependent harmonic coefficients

A time dependent amplitude model was proposed for the analysis and prediction of polar motion time series. The formulation was implemented to analyze part of the new combined solution, EOP (IERS) C 04, daily polar motion time series of 14 years length using a statistical model with first order autoregressive disturbances. A new solution approach, where the serial correlations of the disturbances are eliminated by sequentially differencing the measurements, was used to estimate the model parameters using weighted least squares. The new model parsimoniously represents the 14-year time series with 0.5 mas rms fit, close to the reported 0.1 mas observed pole position precisions for the x and y components. The model can also predict 6 months into the future with less than 4 mas rms prediction error for both polar motion components, and down to sub mas for one-step ahead prediction as validated using a set of daily time series data that are not used in the estimation. This study is dedicated to the memory of Prof. Urho Uotila (1923–2006) whose teaching of “Adjustment Computations” over the years influenced so much, so many of us who had the privilege of being his students.