A New Reserve Growth Model for United States Oil and Gas Fields |
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Authors: | Email author" target="_blank">Mahendra?K?VermaEmail author |
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Institution: | (1) U. S. Geological Survey, Energy Resources Team, Central Region, P. O. Box 25046, MS 939, Denver, Colorado, 80225 |
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Abstract: | Reserve (or field) growth, which is an appreciation of total ultimate reserves through time, is a well-recognized phenomenon, particularly in mature petroleum provinces. The importance of forecasting reserve growth accurately in a mature petroleum province made it necessary to develop improved growth functions, and a critical review of the original Arrington method was undertaken. During a five-year (1992–1996), the original Arrington method gave 1.03% higher than the actual oil reserve growth, whereas the proposed modified method gave a value within 0.3% of the actual growth, and therefore it was accepted for the development for reserve growth models.During a five-year (1992–1996), the USGS 1995 National Assessment gave 39.3% higher oil and 33.6% lower gas than the actual growths, whereas the new model based on Modified Arrington method gave 11.9% higher oil and 29.8% lower gas than the actual growths. The new models forecast predict reserve growths of 4.2 billion barrels of oil (2.7%) and 30.2 trillion cubic feet of gas (5.4%) for the conterminous U.S. for the next five years (1997–2001). |
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Keywords: | Reserve growth modified Arrington method U S oil and gas fields |
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