An analysis of history matching errors |
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Authors: | Z Tavassoli Jonathan N Carter Peter R King |
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Institution: | 1. Department of Earth Science and Engineering, Imperial College, London, SW7 2AZ, UK
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Abstract: | We use a simple 2D model of a layered reservoir with three unknown parameters: the throw of a fault, and high and low permeabilities. Then consider three different cases where in each case two parameters are kept fixed and the third one is varied within a specific range. Using a weighted sum of squares of the difference in production for the objective function, we plot it against the varying parameter for each case. It mainly shows a complex function with multiple minima. We see that geological ‘symmetry’ and also vertical spreading are some sources of non-monotonicity in the production and transmissibility curves. These result in a multi-modal objective function and consequently non-unique history matches. The behaviour of the system in the forecast period is also studied, which shows that a good history matched model could give a bad forecast. |
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