夏季湖北电网气象敏感负荷预测模型研究

利用2009-2010年湖北电网日用电负荷资料和气象资料,提出了基于电网负荷的分解算法,将电网日最大负荷分解为基础负荷与气象敏感负荷2个主要分量.其中,气象敏感负荷与气温、相对湿度及风速的综合气象敏感负荷条件指数相关.提出了基于权重指数的湖北省面平均气象敏感负荷条件指数的算法.利用相关比法,分析了湖北省气象敏感负荷与面均气象敏感负荷条件指数的非线性关系.基于均方偏差最小原理和非线性最小二乘法,建立了夏季湖北电网气象敏感负荷与面均气象敏感负荷条件指数的多项式预测关系模型.经2010年9月模型应用检验表明,预测平均误差低于6％.该模型可用于夏季湖北省电力专业气象服务工作.

Model study on load forecasting sensitive to weather in Hubei power grid during summer

By using daily electricity data and meteorological data in Hubei during 2009-2010, this paper presents an algorithm based on load-decomposition which divides daily maximum load into fundamental and weather-sensitive load which is related to the weather sensitive load index that integrates the synthetical influence of temperature,relative humidity and wind speed. Moreover, this paper presents algorithm of mean surface sensitive load index based on weighted index of regions in Hubei. By using the method of correlation ratio, nonlinear relation between weather-sensitive load and mean surface-sensitive load index in Hubei is analyzed. Based on the least mean-squared deviation and nonlinear generalized least squares, polynomial forecasting model for weather-sensitive load in Hubei power grid in summer is established. Application tests show that the mean predicting errors are all less than 6 percent during September, 2010. Thus, the model can be used in the work of power grid dispatching service in Hubei in summer.