日本近年来关于地震预测研究的科学计划和科学理念

尽管日本国土面积只占世界陆地的1%，但发生的地震却占全球地震总数的10%左右。尤其是致灾型大地震的发生率很高。为应对这一问题，日本政府自1965年开始推进地震预测研究计划，并经历了多个阶段的计划和修订。近年来，随着信息科学领域的快速发展，日本政府将信息科学引入到了地震科学研究，开展了《利用信息科学的地震研究》计划，旨在促进面向新地震预测科学的创新性研究。目前，日本地震调查本部对地震预测的总体观点“一定程度上可预测板间地震的发生时间，但现有研究仍无法预测未来地震，当前工作的重点是预测未来地震的震动规模”。地震预测的科学研究理念正从原先的“灾害发生的预测”向“灾害发展过程的预测”转变。

The collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability: Achievements and priorities

Although Japan constitutes only 1% of the total landmass in the world, it experiences around 10% of global seismicity, particularly the catastrophic great earthquakes. To address the issue, Japan initiated earthquake forecast research programs since the year of 1965, which underwent several stages of planning and revision. In recent years, with the rapid progresses of information science, Japan incorporated information science into earthquake research, and launched “Seismic Research Utilizing Information Science” program aimed at fostering innovative studies in the realm of novel earthquake forecast science. Presently, Japan Meteorological Agency maintains the overall viewpoint that “the occurrence time of interplate earthquakes can be predicted to a certain extent, but available researches show that future earthquake cannot be forecasted. The focus lies in forecasting ground intensity of future earthquakes.” The scientific research philosophy regarding earthquake forecast is shifting from the initial notion of “forecasting the occurrence of disasters” toward “forecasting the developmental process of disasters”.