Analysis of uncertainties in regional climate model outputs over the Czech Republic |
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Authors: | Eva Holtanová Jaroslava Kalvová Jiří Mikšovský Petr Pišoft Martin Motl |
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Institution: | 1.Faculty of Mathematics and Physics,Charles University,Praha 8,Czech Republic |
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Abstract: | In this study we present results of uncertainty analysis in eight regional climate model (RCM) outputs over the area of the
Czech Republic. The RCM simulations come from the EU 5th Framework program project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios
and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). Using the analysis of variance we have found that
the main source of uncertainty in projected changes of mean seasonal air temperature is the driving global climate model.
In case of precipitation changes, the RCM is the largest source of uncertainty in all seasons except for the spring. With
the second method, the Reliability Averaging method, we have focused on the uncertainty coming from the RCM itself. The results
of both methods showed that the relative contribution of the regional climate model to the uncertainty of simulated mean seasonal
air temperature and precipitation changes is largest in summer and smallest in winter. |
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