Retrospective Study on the Predictability of Pattern Informatics to the Wenchuan M8.0 and Yutian M7.3 Earthquakes |
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Authors: | Yongxian Zhang Xiaotao Zhang Yongjia Wu Xiangchu Yin |
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Affiliation: | 1. China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing, 100045, China 2. LNM, Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100080, China 3. Institute of Earthquake Science, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, 100036, China
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Abstract: | Two large earthquakes occurred in the western part of China in 2008, one of them being the Yutian (35.6°N, 81.6°E) M7.3 earthquake that occurred on March 21 (BJT) and the other the Wenchuan (31.0°N, 103.4°E) M8.0 earthquake that occurred on May 12 (BJT). In this paper, the West Continental China (included in 20.0°–50.0°N, 70.0°–110.0°E region) was the study region for verifyong the predictability of the pattern informatics (PI) method using the receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC) test and R score test. Different forecasting maps with different calculating parameters were obtained. The calculating parameters were the grid size Δx, base time t b, reference interval t b to t 1, change interval t 1 to t 2, and forecasting interval t 2 to t 3. In this paper, the base time t b fixed to June 1, 1971, the ending forecast time t 3 fixed to June 1, 2008, and the forecasting interval t 2 to t 3 changed from 1 to 10 years, and the grid sizes were chosen as 1° × 1° and 2° × 2°, respectively. The results show that the PI method could forecast the Yutian M7.3 and Wenchuan M8.0 earthquakes only using suitable parameters. Comparing the forecast results of grid sizes 1° × 1° and 2° × 2°, the models with 2° × 2° grids were better. Comparing the forecast results with different forecasting windows from 1 to 10 years, the models with forecasting windows of 4–8 years were better using the ROC test, and the models with forecasting windows of 7–10 years were better using the R score test. The forecast efficiency of the model with a grid size of 2° × 2° and forecast window of 8 years was the best one using either the ROC test or the R score test. |
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