人口政策变动下曲靖市人口发展趋势分析

人口生育政策变化会对区域未来人口发展产生直接影响,“全面二孩”政策是继“单独二孩”政策之后逐步放宽生育政策的又一重大举措。结合政策变动,筛选政策受众人群进行精准化预测:未来15年,曲靖市20~39岁育龄妇女将净减少3.7万人,其中符合“全面二孩”生育政策且在20~39岁育龄妇女人口规模将缩减近0.7万;结合“全面二孩”政策最终兑现人口的测算,从2016年至2020年间会产生一个“二孩”生育高峰期,过了高峰期之后将渐落并减少至2.23万,较高峰期缩减0.82万人。“全面二孩”政策进一步调整和完善了生育政策,但后期效果不明显,面对“后人口转变”时代的到来,低生育率、老龄化的人口发展新格局,要实现人口与社会经济的协调发展,仍需与时俱进做出入口政策相应调整。

ANALYSIS ON THE TREND OF POPULATION DEVELOPMENT IN QUJING CITY UNDER THE CHANGE OF POPULATION POLICY

The change of population fertility policy directly affect the future development of the population in the region.The “Comprehensive Two-Child” policy is another major measure to gradually relax the birth policy following the “Separate Two-Child” policy.Combining policy changes and screening policies,audiences will make precise predictions:In the next 15 years,20-30 year-old women of childbearing age in Qujing City will have a net reduction of 37,000 people,Which is in line with the “Comprehensive Two-Child” fertility policy and the population of women of childbearing age between 20 and 39 will be reduced by nearly 0.7 million.;In combination with the “Comprehensive Two-Child” policy,the final population will be calculated.From 2016 to 2020,there will be a “two-child” birth peak.After the peak period,it will gradually fall to 2.23 million,and the peak period will be reduced by 0.82 million.people.The “Comprehensive Two-Child” policy has further adjusted and improved the birth policy,but the effect is not obvious in the later period.In the face of the “post-population change” era,the new pattern of population development with low fertility and aging is to achieve population and social economy.Coordinated development,we still need to keep pace with the times and make corresponding adjustments to the population policy.