盐城滨海湿地资源保护与开发情景设计与评价

采用"Bottom-up"方法和景观适宜性评价模型,从景观适宜性评价、湿地保护与开发的历史特点、物种栖息地保护的要求、有利于保护的生境转变方式等方面综合考虑,设计并模拟了盐城滨海湿地开发与保护的三种情景方案,从生态经济价值、成本效益分析、湿地保护与开发意愿等方面探讨协调保护与开发的湿地资源利用情景方案评价与比较。研究结果表明,以综合效益指标为情景方案比较标准时,保护情景方案为最优选择,但只实现了保护目标;以湿地保护与开发意愿指数为标准时,均衡情景方案为最优选择,且能较好地协调湿地开发与保护矛盾。

Scenario Design and Evaluation for Wetland Resources Conservation and Development in Yancheng Coastal Wetland

Scenario research method, as an assistant decision-making instrument, is often used in practice for coordinating conservation and development, and also for regional and environmental management and planning on the goal of sustainable development. This opinion was also proved by the applications of scenario analysis method on land use, landscape, wetland, etc. The Yancheng coastal wetland, where the wetland ecological and biodiversity conservation are of global significance, and the conflict between wetland conservation and development is of prominent, was taken as a case study. In this paper, with comprehensively considering the landscape suitability, the evolution character of wetland development and conservation, the qualification of wetland development for agriculture, the request for wetland protection, and the habitat change way helping for conservation,the scenario analysis method of "bottom up", and Landscape Suitability Evaluation Model, and GIS & RS technique were employed to design and model three scenarios (conservation scenario, agricultural development scenario and balance mode scenario) for the wetland development and conservation of Yancheng coastal wetland. How to assess and compare the scenario schemes of coordinating conservation and development purpose for wetland resources use, was discussed in the case study by the method and indicators of the cost benefit analysis (CBA), ecological-economic value, willingness to pay for wetland conservation(WTP) and willingness to accept for wetland development(WTA). And the results proved that the conservation scenario was the optimal choice when considering the net-benefit factor, but it only achieved the protection objectives; the balance scenario was the optimal choice when considering factors of WTP & WTA, which was better to achieve the both sides of protection and development. It’s implied that a suitable scheme for balancing the wetland conservation and development will be possible by the scenario analysis method. And the scenario method can provide an alternative approach and pathway for wetland wise use and ecological-environmental protection.