丝绸之路经济带中国段经济发展时空演化特征

以丝绸之路经济带中国段各县域(市、旗、区)单元为基本单元,以1980年、1990年、2000年和2013年统计年鉴的相关县域数据为数据源,结合钱纳里经济发展理论、空间相关分析和地理加权回归模型,系统分析丝绸之路经济带中国段县域经济发展时空格局演化特征及其成因。结果表明:(1)丝绸之路经济带经济发展整体上经历了"均衡→不均衡→逐步均衡"的发展趋势,其中区域性中心城市和资源富集性县域单元发展速度明显快于偏远和资源贫乏区域,对周边县域有较明显的辐射和联动效应。(2)丝绸之路经济带经济发展的冷点和热点集聚区经历了从无到有和从少到多的过程,形成了资源富集区域和区域性中心城市集聚区。(3)县域经济增长以空间正关联为主,HH类型有减小趋势,LL类型较为稳定,HL和LH类型则较少且分布零散。(4)通过因子加权回归发现,全社会固定资产投资、3次产业总值和地方政府财政支出对经济增长贡献最大,其它3个因子对其经济发展和空间格局分布亦有显著相关性,各因子对县域经济的影响的显著性随时间推移而不断增强。

Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of economic development in Chinese section of Silk Road Economic Belt

Analyzing regional economic inequality in Chinese section of Silk Road Economic Belt at county scale is of great significance for both academic enquiry and government policy. However,few studies have grasped the essence of regional economic inequality and its spatial-temporal evolution process in Silk Road Economic Belt(China section). Therefore,based on the Chenery's economic development theory,this paper identified the development stages in Silk Road Economic Belt(Chinese section)by taking per capita GDP at the year of 1980,1990,2000 and 2013 as measurement index and investigated the economic growth speed and change trends of spatial patterns of regional inequalities by taking the growth of per capita GDP as the indicator. The Global Moran's I index,Getis-Ord Gi^* index and Geographical Weighted Regression were used for investigating the spatio-temporal evolution of economic development characteristics in Silk Road Economic Belt(China section) from 1980 to 2013. Results show as follows:(1)The economic development in the study area overall experienced a change of "balanced-unbalanced-gradually rebalanced". Therein,development in the regional central cities and counties with rich resources was significantly faster than that in remote and resources-poor regions,and had an obvious radiation and connected effect to its surrounding counties.(2)The hot and cold spots of economic development at different scales were both relatively stable with a tendency to continuing increasing,showing that the economic development is experiencing a gradually rebalanced process.(3)Disparities in Silk Road Economic Belt showed a significant spatial polarization trend with a declining change of HH type districts,a stable trend of LL type districts and a relatively small number of HL and LH type districts.(4)Results of GeographicallyWeighted Regression showed that total investment in fixed assets,GDP of the three industries and regional government expenditure contributed most to the economic growth,and the impact of all the six factors on economic growth increased gradually over time. The Silk Road Economic Belt as a new concept has been presented,and will help the west regions create a rare opportunity for exports of west mechanical and electrical products,agricultural products,specialty goods and so on.