天气数值预报中过去资料的使用问题

本文指出在天气数值预报中要解的天气方程组与我们能有的求解条件是不相配称的.因此需要研究如何把方程组化成最合适的形式而最充分地利用可能有的定解条件(特別是最可靠最完全的气象量测的分布)以使预报效果最好.在某些情形下,天气数值预报可以提成“演变”问题,从而可能使用过去的资料.作为某一气象量的初值问题,天气数值预报也可能使用一部分过去资料.而在以前的天气数值预报是并不使用过去天气资料的.本文最后讨论了这样提法的意义.

ON THE UTILIZATION OF PAST DATA IN NUMERICAL WEATHER FORECASTING

Until now, past data are not utilized in numerical weather forecasting owing to the particular formulations, of the problemo It is pointed out in this paper that the condition for solution, formed by whole set of available meteorological data, is not competible to the general system of weather equations.Thus it is neccessary to study the best way of formulation of the problem using the available meteorological data as much as possible in the condition for solution, in order to obtain the optimum way of forecasting. Two possibilities are given. Firstly, it is shown that under certain condition, weather forecasting may be formulated as an evolution problem, in which the past data are utilized. Secondly, past data could also be partly utilized in an initial value problem in which the system of weather equations, with certain meteorological variables eliminated, contain higher order time derivatives. The significance of these formulations is discussed.