我国境外旅游本底趋势线的建立及科学意义

提出了旅游本底趋势线的概念，依据１９７８￣１９９６年共计１９境外客流量统计数据，经过“滤波”订正，建立了外国人，港澳台胞，华侨及境外客流总量４条本底趋势线；利用旅游本底趋势表“晴雨表”功能说明‘８９风波地我国境外旅游业的影响，利用预测功能预估了未来４年我国境外旅游业的发展趋势。

FOUNDATION AND SIGNIFICANCE OF BACKGROUND TREND LINE OF TOURISTS FROM ABROAD IN CHINA

The conception of tourist background trend line is put forward in this paper. Based on the statistic data of tourists from abroad from 1978 to 1996, by inner insertion method and eliminated the major interference, 4 tourist background trend lines were founded by optimization simulated method. They are tourists from foreign countries, tourists from Hongkang, Macao and Taiwan, tourists who are overseas Chinese and total number of above three. Two scientific functions of tourist background trend ine are discovered: (1) Compared with statistic line, it indicates the rise and fall of tourism just as tourism barometer. (2) The extension of the line can predict the future. As applications, this paper with two functions above, explained the concave curve induced in 89's politic wave and forecasts the next 4 year development trends of tourists from abroad in China.