SWAT模型在伊犁河上游缺资料区的应用

 在分布式水文模型中，探索产生分布式降水数据的方法是该领域研究的热点之一，发展基于水文物理过程的模型校准方法是实践PUB的热点与难点。基于SWAT分布式水文模型，以资料稀缺的伊犁河上游为研究区域，针对流域的水资源评价关键问题，首先准确描述区域的降水空间分布特征，并基于流域水文过程采用综合流域特征、多时间尺度、多变量和多站点的适宜性模型校准新方法，取得了满意的模拟结果，表明模型较好地再现了流域的水文过程。另外，完善水文机理研究，提高降水及下垫面相关参数的观测水平是改善模型模拟的有效途径。

Application of SWAT model in the upstream of Ili River Basin with Scarce Data

In the development of distribution hydrological models,finding a way to produce distribution precipitation data is a hotspot in hydrological research.And it is not only a hot issue,but also a difficulty that develops a model calibration method based the hydrological and physical processes for the practice of the PUB.In this study,the distributed hydrological model-SWAT is applied in the upstream of the Yili River basin with scarce data for the key issue about its water resources evaluation.The catchment area of the basin is nearly 57 000 square kilometers,only four hydrological stations and two meteorological stations have.Firstly,the input data are important for hydrological processes of the basin,especially the precipitation.The spatial distribution of precipitation in this basin is appropriately described by dividing the basin into eight regions,and the precipitation lapse rates in these regions are different each other,varying from 7.9 mm/100 m to 19.6 mm/100 m.Furthermore,there are many elevation bands according to the variation of the elevation in each subbasin.Then,a new suitable method for model calibration is adopted using multi-temporal scales,including annual scale,monthly scale,flood and drought period,multi-variables,such as precipitation,evaporation,total runoff,surface runoff and ground water,and multi-sites incorporates the natural and social characteristics of the basin,which include topography,geological structure,precipitation mechanism,general circulation,agricultural irrigation and reservoirs.This application obtained a preferable simulation results,all indexes reaching the standard.Both NSE and r2 are above 0.6,the highest of 0.83,and RE are all within 8%.It indicates that the model represents the hydrological processes of the basin properly;the results can provide references for the evaluation and management of water resources of the basin.Besides,to improve the model’s simulation,the following studies are needful: to perfect the research on hydrologic mechanism,to improve the observation level of precipitation,and to investigate the related parameters of underlying surface including soil and vegetation.