回归—马尔可夫链法在地下水动态预报中的应用

对于那种既具趋势变化又有季节波动的地下水动态系统,可以容易地利用回归—马尔可夫链联合预测法来作出较为可靠的预报。其中趋势变化部分,可以通过回归建立描述趋势变化的函数表达式作出预测;随机变化部分,可以通过马尔可夫过程的拟合,根据转移概率的大小顺序推测系统未来所处的状态来作出预测。本文扼要地介绍了这一方法的原理,并给出了一成功的实例。

APPLICATION OF THE COMBINATORY FORCASTING METHOD OF REGRESSION-MARKOV CHAIN TO THE GROUNDWATER REGIME PREDICTION

The combinatory forcasting method of regression-markov chain can be easily used to correctly predict groundwater regime in the grounewater system with tendency and random characteristics.The tendency part of them can be calculated in functional equation that is gotten by regression and discribes tendency variation ot the system.The random part can be forecasted with Markovian process,which is done by transfer probability.The principle of this method is simply introduced in this paper,and one example is also given.