新疆及其邻区的地震窗前兆与短期地震预报

根据新疆及毗邻的独联体部分国家区域台网微震观测记录,通过普查与统计检验,筛选出22个具有较高短期预报效能的地震窗。较系统地研究了地震窗小震月频度的前兆特征及其用于短期地震预报的判据指标,着重介绍了近两年新疆与独联体科技合作的最新成果,同时给出若干成功预报震例,并对所得结果的可能物理机制等问题进行了讨论。

SEISMIC WINDOW PRECURSORS AND SHORT-TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION IN XINJIANG, CHINA AND ITS ADJACENT AREAS

Using the microseismic recordings from some local seismic networks,the 22 seismic windows of high efficiency in short - term prediction were chosen out through general checking and statistical examination. The precursory character of monthly frequency for small shocks and the critersion index of short -term prediction were analyzed systematically. In the paper,the author put the emphasis on the new achievements obtained by the scientifical cooperation between Xinjiang, China and the Independent United Society (the original Soviet Union). Some examples of successful forecasting were described,and the possible physical mechanism problems were discussed.