2005年9月新疆克孜尔震群活动特征分析与震后趋势判定

2005年9~10月新疆拜城县克孜尔地区发生5次4级地震,对该次震群活动的序列特征分析表明,这是一次非前兆性震群。震群中最大地震震源机制解和区域构造特征显示,本次震群的发生可能与克孜尔断裂活动有关。对比分析历史震群及其前后新疆及周边的地震活动后认为,本次震群附近短期内不大可能发生更大地震,但震群活动可能反映了新疆区域应力场增强,新疆及周边地区有发生中强以上地震的可能。

THE CHARACTERISTIC ANALYSIS OF EARTHQUAKE SWARM ACTIVITY OF XINJIANG KEZIER IN SEPT., 2005 AND THE TENDENCY DETERMINATION AFTER THE EARTHQUAKE

From Aug.to Oct.in 2005,Xinjiang Baicheng county of Kezier area occurred on 5 earthquake swarms with M4.The characteristics of swarm sequence activity indicated that it was non-omen earthquake swarms activity.In the earthquake swarms,the focal mechanism solution of the biggest earthquake and the regional structure characteristic showed that the occurrence of this swarms was possibly relation with Kezier fault activity.After contrasting and analyzing the historic swarms and seismic activity around Xinjiang and its peripheral region before and after the swarm,we thought that it is impossibly to occur on bigger earthquakes in short term nearby this swarms.However,the activity of earthquake swarms reflected possibly the stress field strengthens of the Xinjiang region.It is possible to occur on mid-strong earthquake in Xinjiang and its peripheral region.