大数据灰色系统GM(1,1)模型在吉林省煤炭发展对策研究中的应用

选取2005—2013年吉林省煤炭消费量数据进行灰色系统GM(1,1)建模,并对所建立的模型进行后验差检验,检验结果为后验差比值小于0.35,最小误差率大于0.95,说明此模型适用于吉林煤炭消费量的预测。预测2014年和2015年煤炭消费量结果分别为114.84×106t和117.98×106t。同时,对吉林省煤炭发展对策进行讨论。

Big data gray system GM (1,1) model application for coal research and development strategies in Jilin

In this paper, the authors selected 2005-2013 coal consumption data to establish Gray System GM (1,1) model in Jilin Province, and made posterior-variance test. The test results of posterior error ratio is less than 0.35, and the minimum error rate is greater than 0.95. The results show that this model is applicable to prediction of coal consumption in Jilin Province. The coal consumption in 2014 was 114.84×106 tons, and was 117.98×106 tons in 2015. In addition, the countermeasures of coal development in Jilin Province are discussed.