1961—2010年饶平气温的变化特征分析

利用饶平1961—2010年气温资料,通过线性拟合、M-K突变分析、小波分析等方法,对饶平近50年气温变化进行特征分析。结果表明：近50年饶平气温显著上升,增温速率为0.017 6℃/年,在1995年发生增温性突变,突变前后平均上升0.7℃。近50年秋冬季增温速率明显大于春夏季;冬季在20世纪80年代末发生突变,其他季节都在20世纪90年代发生突变;秋冬季突变前后增温大于春夏季。气候变暖对饶平极端气温及高温（低温）日数的影响：高温日数在1994年发生增加性突变,近50年来呈显著增加趋势,其中进入21世纪以来高温日数明显增多;低温日数在1983年发生减少性突变,极端最低气温呈显著上升趋势。小波分析得出饶平年平均气温在不同时段存在准6、13、20、28年年际变化周期。

Analysis of the Variation Characteristics of Air Temperature in Raoping from 1961 to 2010

Based on the air temperature data of Raoping from 1961 to 2010 and with the methods of linear fitting,Mann- Kendall abruptness analysis and wavelet analysis,this paper analyzes the characteristics of the temperature variation in Raoping over the 50 years. The results are shown as follows. The temperature of Raoping has been rising significantly over this period by a rate of 0. 0176 ℃ per year with an abrupt change in 1995 that marked a mean increase of 0. 7 ℃ around it. The warming rate in the autumn and winter of the50 years is much larger than that of the spring and summer. The abrupt change took place at the end of1980 s for winter but in the 1990 s for all other seasons. Due to the effect of climate warming,the number of usually high temperature days changed abruptly to increase in 1994 in addition to a tendency of significant increase over the 50 years,which is marked by a much larger increase since the 21 st century,and the number of days with usually low temperature changed abruptly to decrease in 1983 and the extremely low minimum temperature has been increasing significantly. According to the wavelet analysis,the annual mean temperature of Raoping shows annual variations with periods of quasi- 6,13,20,and 28 years in different time of the 50 years.