冬季EC 2m温度预报在贵州毕节地区的检验分析

利用毕节市8个国家站02时、14时气温实况数据,分别计算2016-2018年冬季(12月、1月、2月)EC细网格2 m温度预报的准确率、平均绝对误差、绝对误差,检验在升温、平稳、降温3类天气过程中温度预报效果,为模式温度预报订正提供参考依据。结果表明:02时的预报平均准确率比14时高约10%;除赫章站以外,其余站点准确率在60%~80%之间,有一定预报参考意义;3类天气过程中,平稳、降温天气中温度预报效果明显优于升温天气;升温天气过程中02、14时温度预报大多偏低0~4℃,降温天气过程中02时温度预报总体偏低0~4℃,14时偏高0~4℃。

Verification of ECMWF refined net numerical 2 m temperature forecast in Bijie District of Guizhou Province in winter

Based on the temperature data of 02∶00 and 14∶00 at eight national stations in Bijie City, the accuracy, average absolute error and absolute error of EC fine grid 2 m temperature forecast in winter(December, January and February) of 2016-2018 were calculated. The calculation results were used to test the temperature prediction effect during the three types of weather conditions of being warming, steady and cooling, and provide reference for the correction of mode temperature forecast. The results show that the average accuracy of forecasting at 02∶00 is about 10% higher than that at 14∶00;except for Hezhang station, the accuracy of other stations is between 60% and 80%, which has certain forecasting significance. In the three kinds of weather processes,the temperature prediction effect in the steady and cooling weather are obviously better than that in the warming weather.In the course of warming weather, the temperature forecast at 02∶00 and 14∶00 is mostly 0~4 ℃ lower, while in the course of cooling weather, the temperature forecast at 02∶00 is generally 0~4 ℃ lower, and at 14∶00 is 0~4 ℃ higher.