Trends and Change-Point in Satellite Derived Phenology Parameters in Major Wheat Growing Regions of North India During the Last Three Decades

The virtual certainty of the anticipated climate change will continue to raise many questions about its aggregated impact of environmental changes on our regional food security in imminent future. Crop responses to these changes are certain, but its exact characteristics are hardly understood at regional scale due to complex overlapping effects of climate change and anthropogenic manipulation of agro-ecosystem. This study derived phenology of wheat in north India from satellite data and analyzed trends of phenology parameters over last three decades. The most striking change-point period in phenology trends were also derived. The phenology was derived from two sources: (1) STAR-Global vegetation Health Products-NDVI, and (2) GIMMS-NDVI. The results revealed significant earliness in start of growing season (SOS) in Punjab and Haryana while delay was found in Uttar Pradesh (UP). End of the wheat season almost always occurred early, to even those place where SOS was delayed. Length of growing season increased in most of Punjab and northern Haryana whereas its decrease dominated in UP. The early sowing practice of the farmers of the Punjab and Haryana may be one of the adaptation strategies to manage the terminal heat stress in reproductive stage of the crop in the region. The change-point occurred in late 1990s (1998–2000) in Punjab and Haryana, while in eastern UP it was in early 1990s (1990–1995). Despite the difference in temporal aggregation and spatial resolution, both the datasets yielded similar trends, confirming both the robustness of the results and applicability of the datasets over the region. The results demands further research for proper attribution of the effects into its causes and may help devising crop adaption practices to climatic stresses.