| Wilcoxon秩和检验在热带气旋强度预报方法评定中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 周聪,余晖,傅刚.Wilcoxon秩和检验在热带气旋强度预报方法评定中的应用[J].大气科学学报,2014,37(3):285-288. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周聪 余晖 傅刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国海洋大学海洋环境学院;中国气象局上海台风研究所; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(41275049);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006008) |
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| 摘 要： | 介绍了一种非参数检验—Wilcoxon秩和检验,并将其应用于热带气旋(tropical cyclone,TC)强度预报方法评定。由于在TC强度预报评定中,预报误差的分布是非正态分布,因此无法使用常用的参数检验,必须用非参数检验。结果表明,将Wilcoxon秩和检验应用于TC强度预报方法的评定,有利于更加深入理解TC强度预报方法,提高预报准确性。
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| 关 键 词： | Wilcoxon秩和检验 非参数检验 热带气旋强度预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013/12/3 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2014/2/3 0:00:00 |
Application of Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test in evaluation of tropical cyclone intensity forecast |
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| ZHOU Cong,YU Hui and FU Gang.Application of Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test in evaluation of tropical cyclone intensity forecast[J].大气科学学报,2014,37(3):285-288. |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Cong YU Hui and FU Gang |
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| Institution: | College of Physical and Environmental Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China;Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai 200030, China;College of Physical and Environmental Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China |
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| Abstract: | Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test,a non-parametric test,is introduced and applied to the evaluation of tropical cyclone(TC) intensity forecast.The distribution of forecasting error is a significant non-normal one,so those common parametric tests can not be used and this non-parametric test is proposed.As a result,the prediction method of TC intensity can be evaluated by using Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test,which is helpful not only to better understand the forecast method of TC intensity,but also to improve the prediction accuracy of TC intensity. |
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| Keywords: | Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test non-parametric test tropical cyclone intensity forecast |
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