AN INVESTIGATION INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING DIRECTION PREDICTION BASED ON OLR DATA

An objective technique of tropical cyclone (TC) moving direction prediction over the Northwestern Pacific Ocean during 2001 - 2002 is studied using GMS-5Outing-Longwave Radiation (OLR) data.Three formulae used to predict TC moving direction in 6, 12 and 24 h, respectively, have been obtained based on a multiple linear regression framework and some regression factors including several kinds of OLR characteristic values and the minimum sea level pressure of tropical cyclone center. The multiple correlation coefficients of the statistical analysis using the information of TCs in the Yearbook on Tropical Cyclones to validate the satellite-based prediction are 0.954, 0.945 and 0.914 respectively. The results are satisfying through checking one of the TCs in 2001.The techniques could be applied in future operation and would contribute to TC movement prediction, especially to a sudden change in TC moving direction and improving the forecasting and wining capability.