| 制作汛期降水集成预报的分区权重法 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 周家斌,彭瑶.制作汛期降水集成预报的分区权重法[J].应用气象学报,1999,10(4):428-435. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 周家斌 彭瑶 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.中国科学院大气物理研究所!北京100029(周家斌，张海福，杨桂英)，中国科学院软件研究所!北京100080(彭瑶) |
| |
| 基金项目： | “九五”国家重中之重项目 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 该文提出一种不受历史预报档案资料多少限制的集成预报方法。这个方法的基本思想是以各种不同预报的历史评分资料为基础，确定各个预报方法的权重。根据若干原则设计了16种预报方案。计算结果表明，这个方法具有较高的准确度和可行性，可以用于业务预报。
|
| 关 键 词： | 集成预报 分区权重法 汛期降水 |
Regionalized Weighted Method of Consensus Forecast for Rainfall During Flood Season |
| |
| Zhou Jiabin,Zhang Haifu,Yang Guiying.Regionalized Weighted Method of Consensus Forecast for Rainfall During Flood Season[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,1999,10(4):428-435. |
| |
| Authors: | Zhou Jiabin Zhang Haifu Yang Guiying |
| |
| Institution: | 1.1) (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029); 2) (Institute of Software, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100081) |
| |
| Abstract: | A regionalized weighted method of consensus forecast is proposed which is not confined by the number of sample. The assemble forecast is got based on the score data of different forecast in Previous Periods.16 kinds of schemes are designed.The results indicate that the method possesses certain accuracy and is able to be used in operational forecast. |
| |
| Keywords: | Consensus forecast Regionalized weighted method Rainfall during flood season |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《应用气象学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《应用气象学报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
