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Potential predictors for spring season dust storm forecast in Inner Mongolia, China |
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| Authors: | Tao Gao Xuebin Zhang Yiping Li Haimei Wang Sujun Xiao Wulan Qiaobin Teng |
| Institution: | 1. Inner Mongolia Meteorological Institute, Hailaer Str. No. 49, Hohhot, 010051, Inner Mongolia, China 2. Climate Research Division, Science and Technology Branch, Environment Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, Downsview, ON, M3H 5T4, Canada 3. Inner Mongolia Observatory, Hailaer Str. No. 49, Hohhot, 010051, China 4. Inner Mongolia Meteorological Data Centre, Hailaer Str. No. 49, Hohhot, 010051, China |
| Abstract: | This study identifies potential predictors for seasonal forecast of dust storm frequency for the Inner Mongolia region of China. Regionally averaged antecedent annual precipitation anomaly has a significant influence on spring dust storm frequency. It is strongly linked to the frequency of severe dust storms that produce strong impact on the downstream Beijing-Tianjin area. A hindcast that uses precipitation anomaly to predict dust storm frequency in the following spring significantly outperforms climatologic forecast. Limited soil moisture observations indicate that an abundant annual precipitation increases the soil moisture of subsurface layer in the subsequent spring, which in turn improves vegetation growth that could lead to a reduction in the frequency of dust storms. |
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