| 山东旱涝气候变迁的五个阶段 |
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| 引用本文： | 燕子杰,杨洪昌. 山东旱涝气候变迁的五个阶段[J]. 大气科学, 1991, 15(4): 123-128. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1991.04.14 |
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| 作者姓名： | 燕子杰 杨洪昌 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东大学数学系(燕子杰)，山东省气象台(杨洪昌) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文根据山东旱涝气候变化中盛行的7—8年周期,确定将1470—1985年的山东旱涝演变划分为60个气候时段,用模糊信息检索方法把这些气候时段分为6种类型,根据气候时段序列具有的规律使用模糊判别法定出判据,又进一步将60个气候时段分别划归五个气候阶段,得出:干旱少雨的第5气候阶段将在本世纪末以前继续维持.
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变迁 模糊数学 |
The five phases of climatic changes on drought or waterlogging in Shandong |
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| Yan Zijie and Yang Hongchang. The five phases of climatic changes on drought or waterlogging in Shandong[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 1991, 15(4): 123-128. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1991.04.14 |
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| Authors: | Yan Zijie and Yang Hongchang |
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| Abstract: | According to the prevailing period of 7-8 years in climatic changes on drought or waterlogging in Shandong, we have divided the time period from 1470 to 1985 into 60 climatic periods which belong to 6 climatic types such as drought, waterlogging, regular and so on, based on fuzzy check index of information.According to the law of sequence climatic time we have determined a criterion by means of fuzzy discrimination method and also divided the time period from 1470 to 1985 into 5 climatic phases. In the light of the criterion we know that present is in E climatic phase of more drought and less rainfall which began in 1916 and will last till the end of this century. |
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| Keywords: | Climatic change Fuzzy mathematics. |
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