云南雨季开始期的特征以及与南海季风和印度季风开始期的可能关系

应用EOF、Morlet小波分析方法对云南雨季开始期的时空特征及多尺度周期变化特征进行分析,使用相关分析初步分析印度季风和南海季风开始期与其关系.结果表明：（1）云南雨季开始期的EOF第一模态表明全省雨季开始期一致偏早（晚）,EOF第二模态表明滇中及以东、滇东北、滇东南、滇西南部分地区与滇西、滇西北、滇南大部分地区雨季开始期反相变化的空间分布特征.（2）云南雨季开始期存在着明显的周期性波动,连续小波变换分析表明云南雨季开始期存在2～4年和5～7年的振荡周期.（3）南海季风开始期与云南雨季开始期相关不好,印度季风开始期与云南雨季开始期存在很好的相关性.

THE FEATURES OF YUNNAN RAINY SEASON ONSET DATE AND ITS POSSIBLE RELATIONSHIPS WITH SOUTH CHINA SEA MONSOON AND INDIAN MONSOON

Applied EOF, Modet Wavelet methods to analyze temporal and spatial features and multiscale periods of Yunnan rainy season onset date. Applied correlation methods to research its relationship with South China Sea Monsoon onset date and Indian Monsoon onset date respectively. The results indicated that： （ 1 ） The first model spatial distribution of the Yunnan rainy season onset time indicated that the whole province＇s rainy season onset dates were uniformly earlier （ or later） than the normal time; the second model spatial distribution of the Yunnan rainy season onset time indicated that there was a reverse spatial distribution between the middle, the middle to the eastern, the northeastern, the southeastern, part of the southwestern areas of Yunnan and the western, the north- western, the most of southern areas of Yunnan. （2） By Wavelet transform methods it could be seen that there was obvious 2 - 4 year and 5 ~ 7 year oscillation period. （3） The correlation effect between the South China Sea Monsoon onset date and the Yunnan rainy season onset date was bad, but the correlation effect between the Indian Monsoon onset date and the Yunnan rainy season onset date was very good.