运用双层控制体系确定风、涝灾区域保险费率研究——以河北省为例

灾害损失率计算是农作物保险费率确定的基础。确定为农作物保险费率服务的灾害损失率需要较强的稳定性，为此我们采用多年平均损失率指标，并利用多年平均损失率进行分区。它既能反映出灾害损失率宏观分布规律，又能刻划出灾害损失率较微观的空间分布差异，使区域费率确定更加准确、合理。由于研究区域灾情信息的不完全性，依据大系统理论的递阶控制原理，我们设计了多年平均损失率的双层控制体系，使区域费率的厘定实现了稳定性和灵活性的统一。

REGIONAL PREMIUM RATE FOR THE WINDAND WATRELOGGING DISASTRERS DETERMINDE BYDOUBLE-CONTROL-SYSTEM:AN EXAMPLE INHEBEI PROVINCE

Hebei province,with a vast semiarid to subhumid territory,is located in the transitional belt between temperate and warm temperate climate zones.It is the most sensitive region to terristrial environmental changes,and one of the provinces suffered frequently from natural disasters in China. The mathematical model,originated from the ‘separation corrdination’ method of the large system theory,consists of two controlling factors,in which the subdivision of calamity loss rate is a major factor,while the multi year mean loss rate is a background factor.Putting into practice,insurance premium is calculated on both basal(major)and reference(background)factors.Thus,double control factors reveal a function by which uncertainty of the object studied can be diminished to a minimum. Furthermore,subdivision of the multi year mean loss rate includes different areas and suborders.The suborder,obtained from cutting the multi year mean loss values arrayed on a time axis to several intervals,is recognized as gereralization of various loss rates.Based on such suborders,calamity loss can be geographically subdivided into several units.It is recongnized as generalization of the multi year mean loss rates on geographical distribution.This is the basic for determining crop insurance premium in the province.