Towards an improved seismic risk scenario for Bishkek,Kyrgyz Republic |
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| Authors: | D. Bindi M. Mayfield S. Parolai S. Tyagunov U.T. Begaliev K. Abdrakhmatov B. Moldobekov J. Zschau |
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| Affiliation: | 1. German Research Centre for Geosciences GFZ, Helmholtzstraße 7, 14467 Potsdam, Germany;2. Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, KIT, Institute of Reinforced Concrete Structures and Building Materials, Kaiserstr. 12, 76128 Karlsruhe, Germany;3. International University for Innovation Technologies, Gorky street 1/17, Bishkek 720048, Kyrgyzstan;4. Institute of Seismology, 720020, Asanbay 52, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan;5. Central Asian Institute for Applied Geosciences, Timur Frunze rd.73/2, 720027 Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan;6. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Milano-Pavia, via Bassini 15, 20133 Milano, Italy |
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| Abstract: | A risk scenario for Bishkek, capital of the Kyrgyz Republic, is evaluated by considering a magnitude 7.5 earthquake occurring over the Issyk-Ata fault. The intensity values predicted through the application of an attenuation relationship and a recently compiled vulnerability composition model are used as inputs for seismic risk assessment, carried out using the Cedim Risk Estimation Tool (CREST) code. Although the results of this study show a reduction by as much as a factor of two with respect to the results of earlier studies, the risk scenario evaluated in this paper confirms the large number of expected injuries and fatalities in Bishkek, as well as the severe level of building damage. |
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