中国城镇化地区贡献的内陆化演变与解释——基于1982-2008年省区数据的分析

改革开放30 年来,中国持续快速的经济发展和城镇化受到了世界关注.由于政策环境和地理基础的差异性,地带间差异成为中国城镇化空间差异的主要特征:在多元动力的共同推动下,东部十省的快速城镇化为全国的城镇化进程贡献了49%.新世纪以来,随着西部大开发、东北老工业基地振兴和中部崛起三大区域发展战略的相继提出,政策和地理基础的地带间差异逐步缩小,国内外投资重点向内陆转移,外出务工人员的回流与创业成为人口流动的新特征,带动中西部地区对全国城镇化的贡献迅速提升,中国城镇化的重心向内陆转移,省区城镇化趋同现象比较明显.这些新现象在2005 年以来更加强化.实证结果表明,区域发展战略的提出促进内陆省份对全国城镇化的贡献率提高了8.7%,但并没有对中国省区城镇化的动力机制产生影响;沿海地区产业转移和国际市场的开拓将成为内陆地区城镇化的重要依托.

Rising Role of Inland Regions in China's Urbanization in the 21st Century:The New Trend and Its Explanation

Much global attention has been paid to China's stable and rapid economic growth and urbanization in recent 30 years of the reform and opening-up. Using a decomposition method, this paper extracts the contribution of each province from the national urbanization, and then divides it into growth effect and migration effect, which respectively represent performances of cities in the province in absorbing rural residents from villages in the province per se, as well as migrants from other provinces. Major findings are outlined as follows. (1) The coast-inland gap had been characterized by spatial disparity of China's urbanization for a long time until the new century. The east coastal provinces, with the most remarkable urban expansion and urban population growth, have contributed 49% of the national urbanization due to special policies and location advantages. Although the urbanization there was going at a slower pace, its contribution to China's urbanization was still the greatest, with a peak of more than 60% in the late 1990s. (2) In the early 21st century, especially since 2005, however, inland regions have played a rising role in the national urbanization. As a consequence both to high speed of local urbanization and to the reduction of emigration, contributions of central and western China to the national urbanization have increased rapidly. In the recent period of 2005-2008, for instance, either of them contributed about 30% of the total urbanization. Although their gap to eastern provinces still exists, it comes mostly from inter-regional migration, or the migration effects. The growth effects of eastern, central, and western China are all about 30%. (3) Based on the regression results, three new regional development policies, known as Western Development, Revitalization of Old Industrial Bases in Northeast China, and Rising of Central China, have promoted the national urbanization by some 0.06 percentage point every year, which is about 8.7% of the total contribution of inland provinces, although there are not significant impacts on the mechanism of China's regional urbanization. (4) The effect of regional development policies is derived not only from the direct investment from governments but also from the subsequent domestic and foreign investment. The large scale construction of infrastructure driven by these investments has narrowed the coast-inland gap under policy and location conditions. Consequently, return migration and industrial transfer from coastal provinces to inland regions have ultimately resulted in the abovementioned rising role of inland regions in China's urbanization in the 21st century.