基于GIS和面板数据的城镇集聚能力极化现象研究——以东莞市为例

在潜力模型基础上,提出了伪潜力指数,将其应用于定量描述城镇集聚能力的极化过程,并分析城镇规模和交通条件对集聚能力的影响。为了消除时间段上存在着常数的变量问题,通过面板数据分析(Panel Data Analy-sis)验证研究结果。将该方法应用于分析东莞各镇区1997-2005年城镇集聚能力的空间特征及其变化,探讨城市内部是否存在极化现象。结果表明,镇区集聚能力在空间上存在聚类;集聚能力的变化使极化现象在全市范围内逐步加强,但在经济核心地带内部出现了反极化现象。综合城镇规模对集聚能力的提高更加显著,其空间格局奠定了集聚能力的空间分布状况,从而决定了经济发展要素流动的方向,产生极化现象。选取净迁入人口和实际利用外资情况建立面板数据模型,估计结果证明潜力指数计算结果与人口和资金的吸引呈正相关。

A Study on Polarization Based on Agglomeration Intensity of Towns Supported by GIS: A Case Study of Dongguan

With a dramatically fast urbanization occurring in China,quantitative analysis on polarization based on agglomeration intensity of towns can effectively figure out the degree of urbanization process.In order to study the polarization,this paper involves the potential model,and develops a new index "false potential index" to measure the influence of town size and transport condition changes.Finally,a panel data analysis is adopted to testify the result obtained from the polarization study.The study area is Dongguan City,Guangdong,and the result reveals that from 1997 to 2005,the spatial pattern of agglomeration intensity of towns is evidently clustered,and subsequently the polarization appears stronger with the extent of the whole city.However,a reverse movement can also be seen in the core area in economic sense,which leads to less possibility to be unequal among these towns.Increase of the integrated city size is playing a key role in the process of agglomeration intensity changes,and its spatial pattern is more or less the same as the one of agglomeration intensity.This trend decides the flow direction of the materials needed in development,which causes the occurrence of polarization.Both coefficients of net migrated people index and foreign capital index are positive,supporting a positive correlation between agglomeration intensity and each of such two indices.