1996~2011年安徽省产业结构演进对城镇土地集约利用影响测度与分析

采用主成分分析综合评价方法,对1996~2011年安徽省城镇土地集约状况进行了综合评价;运用Perloff的产业结构测度模型,对安徽省产业结构的构成效应（MIX）、竞争效应（DIF）进行了测算;借鉴STIRPAT模型,采用偏最小二乘回归分析方法,从产业结构的结构效应、竞争效应考察了其对城镇土地集约利用影响,结果表明：① 1996~2011年,安徽省城镇土地利用综合指数呈递增态势,1996~2006年,城镇土地利用指数均值为53.09,2007~2011年,均值为75.2;② 1996~2011年,安徽省产业结构构成效应指数均值为0.012 4,其变化轨迹呈“N”型,而竞争效应指数整体呈上升态势,均值为0.012 8;③ 1996~2011年,安徽省产业结构构成效应、竞争效应对城镇土地集约利用弹性系数分别为-0.002 5和0.004 9。

Measurement and Analysis of Impact of Industrial Structure Evolution on Urban Land Intensive Use in Anhui Province in 1996-2011

To optimize the industrial structure is the inevitable demand of Anhui economic development at present and even in the future for a longer period. Industrial structure adjustment not only affects land resource use pattern, structure and spatial layout, but also impacts land allocation and utilization efficiency. To explore the impact law of industrial structure evolution on urban land intensive use is in favor of coordinating the contradiction between economic development and land growth demand as well as land scarcity, which can also provide references for the government to formulate the policies of optimizing the industrial structure as well as guide and promote urban land intensive use. In this article, a comprehensive evaluation was conducted for urban land intensive state in Anhui Province by using principal component analysis; with Perloff’s measurement model of industrial structure, the composition effect (MIX) and competition effect (DIF) of industrial structure in Anhui Province in 1996-2011 were measured. Based on the STIRPAT model for reference, the impacts of composition effect and competition effect of industrial structure on urban land intensive use were investigated by partial least squares regression. Results showed that: 1) Between 1996 and 2011, the comprehensive index of urban land use in Anhui Province showed an increasing trend, with an average of 53.09 between 1996 and 2006 while that of 75.2 between 2007 and 2011. 2) Between 1996 and 2011, the composition effect index of industrial structure in Anhui Province changed in a “N” type trajectory, with an average of 0.012 4, while the competitive effect index showed a upward trend overall, with an average of 0.012 8. 3) Between 1996 and 2011, the elastic coefficients of composition effect and competitive effect of industrial structure on urban land intensive use in Anhui Province were -0.002 5 and 0.004 9, respectively. These findings may provide references not only for decision-making on farmland protection, ecological construction and socio-economic sustainable development in Anhui Province, but also for similar studies in a provincial-scale.