| 回归诊断在事件概率回归预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 王国强. 回归诊断在事件概率回归预报中的应用[J]. 气象, 1994, 20(7): 43-46 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王国强 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江省绍兴市气象台 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对事件概率回归模型的特点，用残差分析和统计量诊断的方法归纳了回归线差的非称分布现象，揭示了这种现象是由高杠杆占所引起，探讨了概率回归模型的残差不合理性的统计天气预报意义，从而提出适用于概率预报问题的事件概率回归改进模型。分析指出。事件概率回归模型的不合量性并不是个另例了特珠性所造成是由该模型的数学特点所决定，概率回归改进模型要优于普通的概率的回归模型型。
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| 关 键 词： | 天气预报 回归分析 事件概率 |
The Application of Regression Diagnosis Method to Weather Event Probability Regression Prediction |
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| Wang Gueqiang. The Application of Regression Diagnosis Method to Weather Event Probability Regression Prediction[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 1994, 20(7): 43-46 |
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| Authors: | Wang Gueqiang |
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| Abstract: | The regression diagnosis for the event probability regression madal was carried out. It isshowed that probability regression model have no rationality in the sense of statistical forecastingby the distribution of the probability residua and diagnosis amotunts. Thus an advancement ofevent probability regression model is proposed and the results show that it is superior to generalregression model by mathematical proving and calculation of the examples. |
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| Keywords: | regression diagnosis event probability distribution of residua advancement of regression model |
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