Comparing Loss Estimation with Observed Damage: A Study of the 1999 Kocaeli Earthquake in Turkey |
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Authors: | Robin Spence Julian Bommer Domenico del Re Juliet Bird Nuray Aydinoğlu Shigeko Tabuchi |
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Institution: | (1) University of Cambridge, UK;(2) Imperial College, London;(3) Buro Happold, London;(4) Bogazici University, Istanbul;(5) Willis Consulting, London |
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Abstract: | Loss estimation from future earthquakes is of growing importance in planning earthquake protection strategies in high-risk
areas. Loss models based on the spectral displacement approach are now widely used because of generally acknowledged deficiencies
in earlier approaches using macroseismic intensity or peak ground-motion parameters. However, there has been to date rather
little earthquake damage data by which the new generation of models can be assessed and which can be used to calibrate the
parameters involved. The availability of several detailed damage surveys carried out following the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake
in Turkey, provides a rare opportunity for such an assessment. In this paper the losses which would be predicted from two
different approaches to loss assessment – one using predicted macroseismic intensity, the other using the spectral displacement
method – are compared with actual observed losses in the Kocaeli event at two different locations where surveys were carried
out. One of these sites was very close to the surface fault rupture (< 3 km distance), the other at a distance of about 4.5 km.
It is shown that the predictive methods available generally overestimated the losses at these distances, and a number of possible
reasons for these discrepancies are considered. The sensitivity of loss estimates to variations in the key parameters governing
the estimation in each case are explored, in particular with respect to modifications in the parameters of the attenuation
relationships and the vulnerability parameters. The implications of these results for estimating future losses are discussed.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. |
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Keywords: | capacity spectrum HAZUS Kocaeli earthquake loss estimation masonry reinforced concrete sensitivity Turkey vulnerability |
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