新疆降水在气候转型中的信号反应

针对气候转型科学问题的提出,根据新疆61处国家水文气象观测站点的资料,通过5a滑动平均、模比系数差积曲线、线性趋势等方法对新疆降水分析计算.结果显示,近50a来新疆年降水量总体呈增加的变化趋势,全疆年降水量平均增幅0.67mm·a^-1,天山山区增幅最大,达1.0～2.8mm·a^-1.由减少转为增加变化的时间大多出现于1987年前后,以此为界,从1987年起气候转向暖湿的强劲信号不仅反映在新疆的天山西部地区,而且在全疆也有所反映,且南疆强于北疆,西部多于东部.

Precipitation Signal of the Climatic Shift in Xinjiang Region

In accordance with the advanced scientific issue of climatic variation, it is systematically discussed the precipitation variation regulars of Xinjiang in this article. According to the hydrometric data provided by the 61 national hydrometric stations, within 5 years, through the way of the moving average, residual mass curve, linear variability and so forth, to analyze and calculate the precipitation variation of Xinjiang in recent 50 years. Results shows that among the 61 national hydrometric stations, the variation precipitation of 46 is trend to increase, making up 75% of the total stations, the average increment is 0.3 2.8 mm·a^-1. Of which ,the upper parts of the exit mountain pass of south Tianshan mountain,Yili Prefecture in west areas of north mountain and east mountain areas are increased greatly, the average increment is reached to 1.0 2.8 mm·a^-1. thus it can be seen that the precipitation in the most area of Xinjiang is mainly trend to increased, especially in the mountain areas, looks from the yearly variation, the precipitation of Xinjiang in the sixties, seventies is in decrease stage, in the eighties, it began to increase, and enter the transition period, and in the nineties, it is trend to increase year after year, of which, the yearly maximum mean precipitation of each station is appeared in the eighties or nineties, and most of them in mountain areas, the increasing range in mountain areas is higher than plain, west areas higher than east areas. Through analysis the residual mass curve of annual precipitation of each station, we know that the precipitation of Xinjiang is began to increase mainly in the end of the seventies to the middle of the eighties, of which, the precipitation of most station is increased during 1986 1987, making up 75% of total researched station. Therefore, the transition years of precipitation from decrease to increase is round about 1987.on the basis of this, bounded from 1987, we have compared and analyzed the average value of annual precipitation of Xinjiang before 1986 and after 1987 of each station of Xinjiang, and reached that the precipitation of Xinjiang is varied greatly in round about 1987, all are increased in a great extend. Thereby, it is shows that the forceful signal of climatic variation of becoming warm is not only reflected in the west mountain areas of Xinjiang, but also reflected in whole regions in a different extend, the growth rate of south Xinjiang is higher than north Xinjiang, west areas higher than east areas, and it is just the precipitation variation regulars of Xinjiang.