| 地震活动图像分析预测汶川8．0级地震的回顾与思考 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄圣睦,张永久,董瑞英.地震活动图像分析预测汶川8．0级地震的回顾与思考[J].四川地震,2009(2):1-8. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄圣睦 张永久 董瑞英 |
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| 作者单位： | 四川省地震局,四川成都,610041 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国地震局2009年度老专家科研基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文回顾了2008年5月12日四川省汶川8．0级特大地震前中长期及年度趋势预测过程。作者根据地震活动图像特征作出了较好预测，明确指出四川石棉-冕宁和汶川-松潘一带，2008年前后，可能发生7级以上地震。但带短期预测特点的2008年度大震危险性，作者没有作出确切的预测。本文思考了相关的经验教训并对改进分析预报工作提出了构想。
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| 关 键 词： | 历史大震空段 优势复发间隔 大震成组连发 特大地震突发性 紧急会商触发机制 |
Recalling the middle-and long-term prediction of the Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake by using the seismicity images and thoughts |
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| HUAN Sheng-mu,ZHANG Yong-jiu,DONG Rui-ying.Recalling the middle-and long-term prediction of the Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake by using the seismicity images and thoughts[J].Earthquake Research in Sichuan,2009(2):1-8. |
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| Authors: | HUAN Sheng-mu ZHANG Yong-jiu DONG Rui-ying |
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| Institution: | Earthquake Administration of Sichuan Province;Sichuan Chengdu 610041;China |
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| Abstract: | The yearly predicting conclusion of the middle-and long-term seismic tendency in Sichuan province written before the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake is recalled in this paper.According to the seismic images from 2006 to 2007 in Sichuan Province described in the yearly prediction conclusion,we predicted several seismic risk regions which include Shimian-Mianning and Wenchuan-Songpan seismic belts.And the earthquakes with the magnitude greater than M7.0 may happen in these regions.In fact,the occurred earthquakes fe... |
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| Keywords: | gap of historical strong earthquakes recurrence interval earthquakes occurred in groups suddenly happen of strong earthquakes requirement for emergency consultant meeting |
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