捕捞和气候变化在南海北部湾口鱼类长期种类演替和种群动态的作用

捕捞压力在改变南海鱼类种类演替和生物量波动方面所起的作用大于气候和环境因素是一个普遍的、有争议的假设。根据1959~2010年南海北部北部湾口底拖网的调查数据，报告了该海域鱼类种类组成、优势类群的丰度比例、生物量的季节和年际变化。建立了鱼类生物量与捕捞压力和气候变化外部因素之间的广义加性模型。结果表明，捕捞压力驱动底层渔业资源急剧下降的主要因素，并随着时间的推移，高值鱼类被低值鱼类所取代。1993年和1998年期间鱼类生物量的突然减少与同期厄尔尼诺事件相对应，气候变化可能是渔业拖网捕捞中中上层鱼类比例变化的主要驱动因素。为了更好地了解鱼类群落动态，需要区分捕捞压力和环境驱动因素对不同生活史策略鱼类物种的影响。

Roles of fishing and climate change in long-term fish species succession and population dynamics in the outer Beibu Gulf, South China Sea

A prevailing, controversial hypothesis is that fishing pressure has played a greater role than climatic and environmental drivers, in changing fish species succession and biomass fluctuation in the South China Sea (SCS). Based on otter trawl survey data from 1959 to 2010 in the outer Beibu Gulf (OBG), northern SCS, large seasonal and interannual variation is reported for fish species composition, the proportional abundances of dominant taxa, and fish biomass. Generalized additive models are developed to quantify relationships between fish biomass and the external factors of fishing pressure and climate change. Fishing pressure proved to be the main driver of sharp declines in demersal fish stocks, with high-value species being replaced by low-value ones over time. Abrupt decreases in fish biomass during the years of 1993 and 1998 correspond to El Niño events, with climate change possibly the main driver of proportional representation of pelagic species in fisheries trawl catch. The need to differentiate impacts of fishing and environmental drivers on fish species with different life history strategies is stressed to better understand fish community dynamics.