1961-2005年嫩江流域右岸气候变化及对水资源的影响

利用累积距平法和气候倾向率对1961－2005年嫩江流域右岸气温、降水量和径流量资料进行分析，研究嫩江流域右岸气候变化及其对水资源的影响。结果表明：近45 a来嫩江流域右岸气温显著增高，平均以0.52 ℃/10 a的速率上升，而且四季均为上升趋势, 不同季节增温幅度以冬、春、秋、夏季依次递减，1986年以来为气温升高最显著的时段；降水变化可分为3个阶段： 1961－1982年降水量呈减少趋势，1982－1998年处于增加时期，1998年以来降水量又呈现减少趋势。夏季降水量变化趋势与年降水量变化趋势趋于一致, 降水量总趋势是在波动中微弱上升；嫩江流域右岸主要控制站年径流量与年降水量保持同步变化。

Climate change of the right bank of the Nenjiang River Basin and its influence to water resources from 1961 to 2005

Based on air temperature, precipitation and runoff from 1961 to 2005 in the right bank of the Nenjiang River Basin, the climate change and its influence to water resources were analyzed by cumulative departure method and climate tendency rate. The results indicate that air temperature in the right bank of the Nenjiang River Basin increases obviously in recent 45 years with 0.52 ℃/10 a. The air temperature changes take on the increasing tendency, and the increment is the highest in winter, followed in spring, autumn and summer. Air temperature increases obviously since 1986. On the other hand, precipitation can divide into three periods, i.e. decreasing period from 1961 to 1982, increasing period from 1982 to 1998 and decreasing period from 1998 to now. The change tendency of summer precipitation is similar to that of annual precipitation, and they takes on the weak rising trend with the fluctuation. The annual changes of runoff and precipitation in the main controlling stations in the right bank of the Nenjiang River Basin are synchronous.