Correlation between the near-Earth solar wind parameters and the source surface magnetic field

The solar magnetic field B _s at the Earth’s projection onto the solar-wind source surface has been calculated for each day over a long time interval (1976–2004). These data have been compared with the daily mean solar wind (SW) velocities and various components of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) near the Earth. The statistical analysis has revealed a rather close relationship between the solar-wind parameters near the Sun and near the Earth in the periods without significant sporadic solar and interplanetary disturbances. Empirical numerical models have been proposed for calculating the solar-wind velocity, IMF intensity, and IMF longitudinal and B _z components from the solar magnetic data. In all these models, the B _s value plays the main role. It is shown that, under quiet or weakly disturbed conditions, the variations in the geomagnetic activity index Ap can be forecasted for 3–5 days ahead on the basis of solar magnetic observations. Such a forecast proves to be more reliable than the forecasts based on the traditional methods.