基于蒙特卡罗边坡稳定二元体系的建立与应用

边坡是一个具有明显不确定性、模糊性和时变性的系统，安全系数及可靠度理论在边坡稳定评价上各有优缺点。二元体系是基于确定性指标（安全系数）和不确定指标（可靠度）建立的边坡稳定综合评价指标体系，兼有二者的优点，具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。考虑到边坡材料指标具有区间分布及稳定边坡的安全系数不能小于其临界值的特点，对纯数学理论模型进行修正，提出了一种更加符合工程实际的边坡稳定二元评价体系，同时选取蒙特卡罗模拟法，将该二元评价体系融入GeoStudio软件，借助GeoStudio软件强大的计算能力，形成一套完整而高效的边坡稳定二元指标分析方法。采用该方法进行了降雨条件下花岗岩残坡积土边坡稳定性分析，得出了有益的结论，验证了该方法的可行和高效。

Establishment of slope stability dual index system based on Monte Carlo simulation and its application

Slope is a system with visible uncertainty, illegibility and time-varying characteristics. Safety factor and reliability theory have both advantages and disadvantages in slope stability evaluation. Dual index system is a slope stability comprehensive evaluation system which is established based on a specified index (safe factor) and an uncertain index (reliability). It has both benefits of the indices, and important theory significance and practical value. Considering the interval distribution of material indices and the stable slope's safety factor cannot be less than the critical value, the pure mathematics model is modified. A more realistic dual index system of slope stability is proposed. At the same time, the Monte Carlo simulation method is selected. The dual index system is blent in GeoStudio software. With the help of the powerful computing ability of GeoStudio, a complete and efficient dual index analysis method of slope stability is formed. This method has been applied to analyzing stability of a slope of granite residual soil deposits under rainfall condition. And then some useful conclusions are drawn. It is proved that the method is feasible and efficient.