Climate effect of ozone changes caused by present and future air traffic |
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Authors: | M Ponater R Sausen B Feneberg E Roeckner |
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Institution: | DLR-Institut für Physik der Atmosph?re, Oberpfaffenhofen, D-82234 We?ling, Germany E-mail: michael.ponater@dlr.de, DE Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Bundesstra?e 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany, DE
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Abstract: | The potential of aircraft-induced ozone changes to force a substantial climate impact is investigated by means of simulations
with an atmospheric general circulation model, coupled to a mixed layer ocean model. We present results from several numerical
experiments that are based on ozone change patterns for 1992 aviation and on a future scenario for the year 2015. In both
cases, the climate signal is statistically significant. The strength of the ozone impact is of comparable magnitude to that
arising from aircraft CO2 emissions, thus meaning a non-negligible contribution to the total climate effect of aviation emissions. There are indications
of a characteristic signature of the aircraft ozone related temperature response pattern, distinctly different from that associated
with the increase of well-mixed greenhouse gases. Likewise, the climate sensitivity to non-uniform ozone changes including
a strong concentration perturbation at the tropopause may be higher than the climate sensitivity to uniform changes of a greenhouse
gas. In a hierarchy of experiments, for which the spatial structure of an aircraft-related ozone perturbation was left fixed,
while the amplitude of the perturbation was artificially increased, the climate signal depends in a non-linear way on the
radiative forcing.
Received: 10 September 1998 / Accepted: 4 May 1999 |
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