Mechanisms of monsoon-Southern Oscillation coupling: insights from GCM experiments

 The relative roles of internal atmospheric dynamics, land surface evaporation and sea surface temperature (SST) forcings on the coupling between the Asian monsoon (AM) and the Southern Oscillation (SO) are investigated in a series of GCM experiments. Results confirm previous studies indicating that the characteristic large-scale pattern of the SO is due primarily to SST anomaly (SSTA) forcing. The AM circulation anomalies are coupled to the SO via a characteristic upper level circulation couplet over the equatorial central Pacific. This couplet acts as a radiating node for teleconnection signals originating from the AM region to the extratropics. Generally, a weak AM is associated with warm SST over the eastern equatorial Pacific, concomitant with the negative phase of the SO, i.e., low (high) surface pressure over Tahiti (Darwin). The reverse holds for strong AM. Two wavetrains associated with the AM fluctuation have been identified: one arcing over northeastern Asia via the Aleutians to North American, and another emanating from northwestern Europe, via Siberia to northern India. Internal dynamics appear to underpin the origin of these wavetrains, which are strongly tempered by SSTA forcing and to a lesser degree by interactive land processes. Regionally, land-atmosphere interaction seems to have the strongest impact over East Asia/Indochina and the adjacent oceanic region of the South China Sea. Here, land-atmosphere interaction is responsible for the enhancement of a subseasonal scale see-saw oscillation in precipitation between land and the adjacent oceans. A local land-atmosphere feedback mechanism involving strong coupling between the hydrologic and energy cycles is identified. It is suggested that the interaction among precipitation, moisture convergence and land surface turbulent heat fluxes and radiation processes play key roles in determining the fast (subseasonal and shorter scales) response of the AM. On these time scales, the occurrences of cool/wet and hot/dry states associated with the precipitation seesaw appear to be chaotic. However, the preferred occurrence of a given state and the abrupt transition between states are dependent on the large-scale circulation and radiation forcings induced by the SO. One of the more provocative findings here is that effects of land-atmosphere interaction do not seem to alter the basic planetary scale features of the AM-SO system. As a result, the interannual variability of the coupled AM-SO is relatively small in the absence of anomalous SST forcing. Yet, the local effect of land-atmosphere interaction on AM is quite pronounced and dependent upon the large-scale forcings related to SO. Received: 18 November 1997 / Accepted: 07 April 1998