???????????????????????????????????о?

????2008?????????GPS????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????α????????????????????????????????????????????????????仯?????????????????????????仯???ж?????????о??????????????????-??????????????????????????????????0.67 bar???????????????????????????????κ??????????????????????????С???????????????-???Ρ?????????Ρ????????????????κ??????????????????????????????????????????????????仯???????????????????????????????????????????????????????η????????????????????????????????2????

QUANTITATIVE STUDY ON INFLUENCE OF WENCHUAN ?? EARTHQUAKE ON COULOMB STRESS AND EARTHQUAKE ?? PROBABILITY OF THE FAULTS AROUND

Regional tectonic stress field was analyzed with focal mechanism of Wenchuan Earthquake and the fine rupture model which based on near??field displacement field??and probability of earthquake occurrence of the faults around Wenchuan was estimated.The result shows that the Coulomb stress in Daofu??Kangding segment of Xianshuihe Fault increased obviously with the maximum value of 0.67 bar.The stress in east Kunlun fault??Jialichayu fault??southern segment of Minjiang fault and northeast segment of Chengdu??Deyang fault increased a little.The Earthquake also reduced the stress in Maerkang fault??northern segment of Minjiang fault??southwest segment of Chengdu??Deyang fault and Huya fault.Analysis of earthquake occurrence probability based on changes of Coulomb stress indicates that the probability of earthquake occurrence in Xianshuihe fault is increased close to 2 times.