气候变化对我国农作物宜播种面积的影响

基于气候条件与农作物熟制的相互关系，得到农作物潜在播种面积，分析气候变化对我国农作物播种面积的影响和其他因子对其综合作用。结果表明：我国实际播种面积增长缓慢，空间差异明显，华中实际播种面积占比最大而新疆最少，西南、华中、东北和新疆面积增加，西北、华南、华东和华北减少；在≥10℃积温指标下，1986-2009年我国潜在的不可耕地面积平均值相对1961-1985年减少约34.33%，一年一熟区面积有所减少，但仍占约50%面积，一年两熟和一年三熟地区面积均呈增加趋势；综合≥10℃和≥0℃两个积温指标，我国潜在播种面积缓慢增长，与实际播种面积的变化趋势一致，其他综合因子则在总体上对潜在播种面积的增长有微弱抑制作用。

Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Sown Area in China

Based on the rule of cropping system, potential sown area is used to analyze the response of crop sown area to climate change, and other combined factors as well. Some results are concluded as follows. Actual sown area in China increases slowly, with obvious regional disparities, expanding in Southwest China, Central China, Northeast China and Xinjiang, while reducing in other regions. The maximum of actual sown area is in Central China, and the minimum is in Xinjiang. According to≥10℃ accumulated temperature, the average of non-cultivated areas in China in the period 1986-2009 decreased by almost 34.33% compared with the period 1961-1985; single cropping area cut a little bit, while still remained the largest share of about 50%; double cropping area increased the most, and the area of triple cropping followed. The combination of ≥10℃ with ≥0℃accumulated temperatures is available to show a slow increase in China potential sown area, with high similarity to actual sown area. On the contrary, other factors as a whole restrain the expansion of sown area slowly.