气候变暖对刚察县采暖气象指标的影响及节能潜力分析

利用青海省刚察县1961—2008年逐日气温资料，运用数理统计等方法，分析了该地区采暖期气象条件变化及节能潜力。结果表明，1961—2008年间，刚察县采暖期平均气温上升，负积温减少，采暖初日推迟、终日提前，采暖长度明显缩短；采暖度日与采暖期平均气温关系密切，采暖度日呈极显著下降趋势，特别是1994年气温突变后，下降趋势更加明显，冬季寒冷程度有所减弱，能耗需求量减小；该县采暖能源需求异常偏多主要分布在20世纪60年代，偏多年份以70—80年代为主，偏少年份出现在80年代中期以后，主要集中在2000年以后。气候变暖所致采暖节能率为7%，这对节约能源、减少大气污染和温室气体排放较为有利。

Impact of Climate Warming on Meteorological Condition and Energy-Saving Potential during Heating Period in Gangcha

Using the annual daily temperature data from 1961 to 2008, the changes of meteorological conditions and energy saving potentials during heating periods in Gangcha County of Qinghai Province are analyzed by the mathematical statistical method. The results indicate that the mean temperature in the heating period rose gradually while the negative accumulated temperature of the same period decreased from 1961 to 2008. As a result, the starting date of heating season postponed, but the ending date advanced, and the heating length remarkably shortened. The HDD （Heating Degree Day） was closely related to the average temperature of the heating period, decreased significantly, especially after the abrupt temperature change in 1994, which led to less cold winters and made the energy demand declined remarkably. The extraordinary high requirements for hearting energy resources were mainly in the 1960s; higher than normal requirements were mainly between the 1970s and 1980s; lower than normal requirements were found after the middle 1980s, mainly occurred after 2000. From a meteorological point of view, about 7% of annual heating consumption can be saved owing to climate warming, which is beneficial for energy conservation and air pollution control.