国内外雪崩灾害研究综述

伴随着全球气候变暖,冰冻圈雪崩灾害潜在风险逐渐增加,雪崩灾害已受到社会各界的广泛关注.目前,在雪崩形成机制、抛程、动态模拟、风险评价与区划、预防与防治等领域取得了较大进展.雪崩灾害研究正在经历由野外观测到遥感手段与野外观测相结合、由定性半定量到定量、由经验估算到过程模拟、由雪崩机理研究向承灾区适应研究转变的发展过程.然而,以往研究过多集中于气候因子、积雪环境、沟道地形等雪崩形成机制研究与动态模拟,而承灾区承灾体脆弱性、暴露性及其适应性研究却相对较少.只有将雪崩始发区和承灾区作为一个整体进行系统研究,通过早期预警、预测和预报,才能使下游承灾区居民防患于未然,以防止或减小雪崩对承灾区居民和财产带来的损失.

A Review of the Progresses of Avalanche Hazards Research

With the global warming, the risk of cryospheric avalanche hazards has been gradually increasing, and receives a great deal of attention from the public. There has been significant progress in avalanche research in the fields such as: (1) mechanism of avalanche formation; (2) avalanche path; (3) dynamic simulation; (4) risk assessment and hazard zoning; (5) forecasting and prevention of avalanche hazards. Avalanche research has gone through the changes: (1) from field survey only to combination of field survey and remote sensing; (2) from qualitative and semi-quantitative to quantitative; (3) from empirical estimation to dynamic simulation; (4) from study of avalanche formation to avalanche risk assessment, adaptation and mitigation in the hazardous areas. However, previous studies put more focus on the mechanism of avalanche formation which involves weather, snowpack structure, terrain, etc., and relatively less focus on the vulnerability, exposure, adaptation measures in the hazardous areas. Only when the avalanche initiation areas and the hazardous areas are taken together under a systematic investigation, through early warning, prediction and forecasting, can the hazardous areas be protected against avalanche disaster and the loss of human life and property in the areas be prevented or minimized.