城市小汽车拥有及使用决策研究述评

城市小汽车拥有及使用决策研究作为城市交通规划、交通投资及政策制定的基础, 成为学术界关注的焦点。本文以城市小汽车拥有及使用决策为主题, 从理论基础、实证研究和模型方法等方面解析了国外相关研究的发展脉络和主要论点, 总结现有研究的基本范畴和理论范式。在此基础上, 系统回顾国内研究的重点内容。国内外小汽车拥有及使用决策的研究都经历了由宏观到微观的转变;国外研究集中于基础理论、特征及影响因素、模型研究等方面;国内研究从早期单纯关注小汽车快速发展对城市带来的影响及对策研究到开始关注小汽车交通与城市环境的相互作用机制研究。最后, 在分析现有研究不足的基础上, 对研究趋向进行了展望, 以期为今后的小汽车拥有及使用决策研究提供分析架构。

Researches on Decisions about Car Ownership and Usage in Urban Areas

Researches on decisions about car ownership and usage, as the basis of urban traffic planning, investment in transportation and policy making, has become an important discipline and academic focus which capture the attention of the international academic communities. This study focuses on the decisions about car ownership and usage, and analyzes the development of the relevant studies in foreign countries from the aspects of theoretical foundations, empirical studies and research approaches. In addition, the paper summarizes the basic categories and theoretical models. Based on that, we systematically review the important topics in domestic studies. The review indicates that the studies on the decisions about car ownership and usage have gone through the shift from macroscopic level to microcosmic level at home and abroad. The foreign studies mainly concentrate on basic theories, characteristics and influencing factors, research of models, and so on. The domestic studies have shifted from only focusing on the consequences of a rapid increase of car ownership and the countermeasures to investigating the mechanism by which car traffic and urban environment affect each other. Finally, based on the analysis of insufficient areas of the current research, the paper predict a trend for the related research and puts forward an analysis framework for the future research on the decisions about car ownership and usage.